Africa:A case of a glass half full, half Empty

Acknowledgment of Africa’s ongoing economic revival is becoming more widespread.

Hardly a week passes without a notable report or conference extolling the continent’s growth performance and structural potential, made more pronounced by the economic malaise of much of the advanced world.

Earlier this month, the Institute for International Finance (IIF) published its first-ever regional overview on Sub-Saharan Africa.

The Economist magazine in December last year featured the title “Africa Rising” on its front cover, an about turn from its 2000 labeling of Africa as the “Hopeless Continent”. Home to several of the world’s fastest-growing economies, Africa is increasingly difficult to ignore.

Yet, the effect of global sentiment springing so dramatically from Africa’s distorted past image of war, disease and poverty to one of growth, opportunity and optimism is creating a binary discussion which leaves little space for real depth of understanding. I am often asked whether I am an “Afro-optimist” or an “Afro-pessimist”.

Naturally, when forced to make this call, my leaning is unequivocally to the former – I believe deeply in Africa’s current resurgence, and have great confidence in the ability of its people, across its 54 states, to negotiate the myriad challenges faced in engineering a brighter future.

But this is not to say that the path will be a smooth or straightforward one and an appreciation of the depth of the challenges still faced does not imply a lack of faith in the continent’s ability to surmount them.

As a result, we need to move from the somewhat simplistic question of whether Africa’s glass is “half full” or “half empty” to engage more constructively with its clear merits and persistent challenges, and move towards an understanding of how the continent can reach the critical next level of growth. 

Core to this level is the need to increasingly diversify economies away from reliance on un-beneficiated natural resources, to provide sustenance, as well as institutional support (primarily through education and employment) for a rapidly swelling population (expected to increase by 200 million in the next decade), to build the infrastructure necessary to boost intra-regional trade and create cities capable of absorbing the roughly 400 million Africans that will be born in or migrate to urban hubs in the next two decades

Perhaps most critical is the necessity to craft more inclusive and equitably distributed growth. The gulf in income across Africa is becoming more pronounced, and the socio-economic responsibilities, let alone threats, that this gives rise to must be a central feature of future plans. 

While North Africa’s “Arab Spring” will not systemically spread south, political systems will have to become more nimble to negotiate the demands of an increasingly youthful, urbanized and connected populace. The risks, both foreseeable and unknown, that accompany these inevitable shifts may not detract from Africa’s allure, but they certainly imply that a more nuanced and critical approach to the continent is necessary.

An appreciation of Africa’s extraordinary agricultural potential is emblematic of this dual challenge. On the one hand, awareness of this potential (Africa is home to roughly two-thirds of the world’s available cropland) is essential to attract critical investment towards equipping Africa’s predominantly subsistence farmers with the means to increase yields, store and transport goods to local, regional and international markets.

Yet, a powerful array of challenges stands in the way of realizing this potential, not least of which is the fact that less than 10 percent across Africa is held under formal land tenure (thus allowing the displacement of communities in the interests of clearing land for commercial farming). Thus, an approach which engages with the opportunity in a manner which is sensitive to its latent pitfalls is essential.

While the adage that a “rising tide lifts all boats” will to an extent ring true, the enormity of the challenges inherent in reaching this next stage of growth means that some countries will prosper and others will undoubtedly falter. Today’s euphoria is also associated with a far greater awareness of the internal dynamics shaping Africa. 

While Africa’s successes will be beamed out to a grateful international audience, so too will its failings. Many African countries are arguably in a similar situation today where South Africa was at the dawn of its democracy – an international darling, feted for its reform path and glistening with hope. Viewed through this partial frame, South Africa’s “sad decline” (The Economist) has been pronounced. But for those with a more nuanced appreciation of the depth of challenges facing South Africa two decades ago, today’s travails are more readily understood.

To be sure, the thrust of the positivity around Africa’s prospects is perhaps necessary to blast through the very deeply negative impression the continent previously held throughout the international community. But we must soon move deeper, and analyse the continent inspired by a collective appreciation of its potential and a real and constructive engagement with its challenges.

Israel readying more powerful 'Iron Dome'

A new Israeli air shield against rockets more powerful than those intercepted by Iron Dome in the Gaza conflict passed its first field test last week after being rushed through development, said top officials.

They said that David's Sling, billed as Israel's answer to the longer-range missiles of Lebanese Hezbollah guerrillas and Syria, shot down a target rocket in a secret November 20 desert trial that coincided with fierce shelling exchanges between Israel and Palestinians in the Gaza Strip, revealed the officials on Sunday .

Worried about deteriorating security on the fronts with Gaza, Lebanon and Syria, and the international showdown over the disputed nuclear program of arch-foe Iran, Israel has been accelerating work on its multi-tier missile shield, with extensive help from the United States.

A source in Israel's defense industries said David's Sling was originally scheduled for live trials in 2013, and that this was brought forward "given the general sense of urgency".

David's Sling uses technology similar to that of the Iron Dome system, which Israel says had a 90 per cent success rate, intercepting 421 of the rockets fired from Gaza in eight days of fighting that ended in a ceasefire on Wednesday.

Also known as Magic Wand, David's Sling is being made by Israel's state-owned Rafael Advanced Defense Systems Ltd and US firm Raytheon Co.

"The completion of the program will be a significant layer for Israel's multi-tiered anti-missile defense system," Defense Minister Ehud Barak said in a statement

Iron Dome is the lowest of the tiers, tackling the guerrilla rockets of Gaza and Hezbollah. It was originally meant to handle ranges of up to 70km, but designers say this is being expanded to some 250 km.

The top-most tier is Israel's Arrow ballistic interceptor, designed to shoot down long-range Iranian and Syrian missiles at atmospheric altitudes - high enough so that any non-conventional warheads they might carry would be safely destroyed.

David's Sling would serve as a bridge between Iron Dome and Arrow, Israeli officials say, blocking out rockets that prove too fast and powerful for Iron Dome, or any ballistic missiles that are missed by Arrow.

Israel has already deployed the second generation of Arrow, known as Arrow II, as well as Iron Dome. The latter, also manufactured by Rafael, shot down hundreds of Palestinian rockets during the Gaza fighting of November 14 to 22.

Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah, leader of Hezbollah, which has been armed and funded by Iran, warned Israel on Sunday that thousands of rockets would rain down on Tel Aviv and cities across the Jewish state if it attacked Lebanon.

The Fajr-5s, with a range of some 75 km - able to strike Tel Aviv or Jerusalem - and 175 kg warheads, are the most powerful and long-range rockets to have been fired from Gaza.

But Hezbollah, which fought Israel to a standstill in a 34-day war six years ago, says it has been re-arming since then and has a far deadlier arsenal than Hamas, Gaza's Islamist rulers.

Like Iron Dome and Arrow, David's Sling has drawn interest from foreign clients, especially as the nascent system is also billed as being capable of intercepting cruise missiles.

Among potential customers have been at least two former Soviet satellite states in the Balkans, their diplomats told Reuters on condition neither they nor their countries would be named.

A recently retired Israeli defense official who has been briefed on the international contacts over David's Sling linked the Balkan interest to worries about Russian cruise missiles.

"There's a big bear next door that they want to keep away from their door," the Israeli ex-official said.

Fall of Goma: The untold story

 

When the provincial capital of Goma in the eastern Democratic Republic of Congo fell to rebel forces earlier, the rapidity of the rebel advance was shocking, but the fait accompli failure of both Congo’s armed forces and the country’s United Nations mission was not.

As 2012 dawned, the international community and the United Nations peacekeeping mission in Congo – known by its acronym, MONUSCO (formerly MONUC) – were hailing the peace and stability that a 2009 deal with the Congrès National pour la Défense du Peuple (CNDP) rebel group had supposedly brought to the eastern part of this vast country.

Formed by renegade general Laurent Nkunda, the CNDP’s ostensible goal was the protection of Congo’s Tustsi ethnic group and the defeat of the Forces Démocratiques de Libération du Rwanda (FDLR), the main Hutu-led military opposition to the Tutsi-led government of President Paul Kagame in Rwanda.

The FDLR, though a severely degraded force from what it once was, has its roots in Rwanda’s 1994 genocide when several hundred thousand Tutsis and Hutu moderates were slaughtered by extremist Hutu supremacist elements.

Succoured by Rwanda, Nkunda nevertheless proved himself to be a headstrong and unreliable negotiating partner with the regional powers and with the government of Congo’s president, Joseph Kabila, who Nkunda openly talked about toppling.

Kabila’s father, Laurent Kabila, had seized power with Rwandan help in 1997 only to then go to war with his former patrons and die by an assassin’s bullet a little over three years later.

As a result of his recalcitrance, Nkunda was jettisoned and replaced at the negotiating table by another CNDP leader, Bosco Ntaganda. He had beenindicted by the International Criminal Court in The Hague in January 2006 on three counts of war crimes allegedly committed while he was helping to command another rebel group in Congo’s Ituri region, a time during which he earned the sobriquet “the Terminator.”

The deal struck between the Kabila government and Ntaganda’s CNDP in March 2009 saw the rebels become a registered political party and their forces integrated within the official armed forces, the Forces Armées de la République Démocratique du Congo (FARDC). Bosco Ntaganda became an important powerbroker in the province of North Kivu, the Rwanda and Uganda-border region of which Goma is the capital.

Far from a road to Damascus moment, the agreement was rather a modus vivendi by cunning, ruthless political operators.

Kabila, reelected in a highly controversial 2011 ballot, has fashioned a government that is in many ways a younger, more sophisticated version of his father’s. Relying on a narrow circle of trusted individuals and a network of international alliances, Kabila’s power is built on patronage rather than a political base.

This model was dealt a serious blow when one of Kabila’s most trusted advisors, Augustin Katumba Mwanke, a man who often handled Kabila’s most delicate financial and political transactions, was killed in a plane crash this past February.

Across the border, Rwandan President Paul Kagame, for so long a darling of western donors and development workers, has for many years presided over a tight-lidded dictatorship where government critics meet either death (opposition politician Andre Kagwa Rwisereka, killed in Rwanda in July 2011), exile (former general Kayumba Nyamwasa, wounded in a shooting in South Africa in June 2010) or both (Inyenyeri News editor Charles Ingabire, shot dead by an unknown gunman in Kampala last December).

[Along with other neighbours who have seen fit to intervene in Congo over the years, Rwanda has been happy to help itself to large amounts of the country's extensive mineral wealth, as documented in a 2001 United Nations report]

As a number of people (myself included) warned at the time, the peace deal as implemented was a marriage of convenience destined for a nasty divorce. Unfortunately, the international community itself gave an additional seal of approval when, against the advice of their own Office of Legal Affairs, UN forces backed Congo’s army as the latter launched Operation Kimia II (“Quiet” in Swahili) in March 2009 against the FDLR.

Despite the common knowledge that Ntaganda – a wanted accused war criminal – was acting as de facto deputy commander for Congolese forces during Kimia II, MONUC’s command hid behind transparently false Congolese government assurances that Ntaganda was not involved.

According to one investigation, between January and September 2009 more than 1,400 civilians were slain in the provinces of North and South Kivu, at least 701 by the FDLR and the rest by Congolese and Rwandan government-allied forces. Over the same time period in the same provinces, over 7,500 women and girls were raped and over 900,000 people forced to flee their homes.

Despite these excesses, the UN signed a Joint Operational Directive with Congo’s army as it launched yet another operation against the FDLR, this one dubbed Amani Leo (“Peace Today”), during January 2010.

Immaculée Birhaheka of the Promotion et Appui Aux Initiatives Feminines (Promotion and Support for Women’s Initiatives) pleaded that “the name of the military operation has changed, but the situation remains the same: Women are still being killed, maimed, abused like animals.”

They would have been wise not to look to the UN for help. Though the UN peacekeeping mission in Congo is the largest in the world at nearly 17,000 military personnel, it is still cartoonishly small for a country the size of Western Europe.

Nor has the mission shown any great appetite for adhering to its mandate, which charges it with working “to ensure the protection of civilians, including humanitarian personnel, under imminent threat of physical violence.”

In May 2002, when dissident soldiers mutinied against their commanders in the central city of Kisangani, MONUC troops did almost nothing as those commanders (including Laurent Nkunda) oversaw the killing of at least 80 civilians and a ghastly bout of rape.

Two years later, in the city of Bukavu, Nkunda was again present as a series of ethnically-based attacks in and around the city saw looting, raping and murder take place as MONUC did little to aid common citizens. In November 2008, CNDP forces led by Bosco Ntaganda killed at least 150 people in the town of Kiwanja despite the fact that 100 UN peacekeepers were stationed less than a mile away.

Once part of the official apparatus in North Kivu, as pressure grew (as it inevitably would) on Ntaganda to break the parallel chains of command within the FARDC-integrated CNDP units, and with chorus of calls demanding his arrest, the warlord finally decided that the pressure was too much.

By early April of this year, former CNDP members began to desert their posts in North Kivu and fighting broke out around the province. By May, the deserters had named their group the Mouvement du 23 mars, or M23, a reference to the date of the 2009 peace accords between the CNDP and the Kabila government. They operated, as they always had, with strong Rwandan backing.

In July, saying that the Obama administration had “decided it can no longer provide foreign military financing appropriated in the current fiscal year to Rwanda,” the United States announced – for the first time since 1994 – that it was suspending military aid to the Kagame regime, citing “evidence that Rwanda is implicated in the provision of support to Congolese rebel groups, including M23.”

That same month, the Netherlands announced that it was suspending five million euros ($6.2 million) in aid to Rwanda, a decision it said was directly linked Kigali’s support of M23. The following day, the British government also announced the freezing of £16 million of aid.

[The recent decision of the UK's international development secretary, Andrew Mitchell, to restore aid to Rwanda on his last day on the job resulted in a storm of controversy and a pledge by his successor that she would gather evidence in terms of Rwanda's linkage with M23 before deciding on any new aid.]

But today, with almost-certain Rwandan (and Ugandan) backing and with, by all accounts, barely token opposition from UN forces stationed there, the M23 seized Goma. And tonight, as the United Nations and the international community stand by, the people of Congo are once again at the mercy of those who have tormented them in the past.

The approach of the international community thus far, both in exercising its mandate to protect civilian lives in Congo and in holding the outside supporters of Congo’s rebel groups to task, has thus far proved woefully insufficient.

As word of Goma’s fall spread throughout Congo, reaction was immediate. Buildings belonging to Kabila’s political party – with many Congolese accusing the president of caving in to the Rwandans – were burned in the cities of Kisangani and Bunia, and UN buildings were pelted by stones in the latter town.

The fall of Goma may prove a defining moment, for both the Congolese government and for the gulf between the actions and the words of the international community in the Democratic Republic of Congo.

Managing Risks In The Extractive Industries

Transparency International's Corruption Perception Index shows African countries remain problematic locations for business operations.

Rising demand fueled                                          by emerging countries, most notoriously China and India, has led to increased competition for natural resources. Despite recurrent volatility in the markets, the trend is a rise in prices, oil being the prime example. In this context, frontiers have disappeared and previously overlooked regions, which include Western and Central Africa, constitute the new El Dorados.

With higher prices, massive investments needed to extract oil, gas and minerals in often unstable and poorly accessible regions, become a profitable endeavour. In short, the risk–benefit equation has changed.

This will not be news for anyone who has been working in the region. 

Yet, specific risks associated with those opportunities remain too often overlooked by investors. Indeed, according to Ernst & Young, fraud and corruption ranked only tenth in its risk survey for the mineral and metals industries. For the oil & gas industry, the result was even worse: fraud and corruption did not even appear on the radar.

Mind-sets need to change

As a reminder, 23 African countries remain in the bottom 30 of the World Bank’s 2011 Ease of Doing Business Index. They include key extractive industry protagonists such as Angola, Congo-Brazzaville, the Democratic Republic of Congo, Equatorial Guinea, Gabon and Niger. Though a little better, Nigeria still achieves a poor 133rd place. Corruption, meanwhile, remains pervasive – well demonstrated by Transparency International’s ‘Corruption Perception Index.’ .

 Needless to say, this is not exclusive to Africa and Botswana is here to remind us that the so-called “resource curse” is not always fatal for the development of good governance.

In these high-risk zones and highly competitive sectors, investors can be tempted to disregard good practises in order to secure deals, reduce delays and improve their overall margins.

Examples of criminal actions can include illicit payments, for example bribery of a civil servant in order to expedite administrative processes, indirectly financing criminal entities, human rights violations such as forced labour or the violent relocation of local populations, and the violation of international sanctions – this has been particularly relevant for the diamond industry since the establishment of the Kimberley Process in 2000.

Investors can also be tempted to ignore illegal acts committed by their local joint-venture partners, often linked to, if not controlled by, politically exposed persons. 

But ignorance is no legal protection. Such short-term tactics are dangerous and counter-productive.

Unscrupulous investors do not only face expensive legal sanctions, with possible jail terms, but also unmanageable PR disasters. A company’s reputation is a precious asset, which in the era of Twitter can be devastated in no time. Rebuilding a positive (or at least neutral) image is a costly and time-consuming process. Make no mistake, anticorruption NGOs such as Global Witness and Transparency International have acquired advanced investigative skills, and few would like to be their next targets.

We are facing a paradigm-shift

Companies tend to be familiar with the 1977 US Foreign Corrupt Practices Act (FCPA) and the more recent UK Bribery Act (2011), which provide strong extra-territorial legal incentives to prevent corruption. Meanwhile, the Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative (EITI) aims to reduce corruption by making public the amounts of money transferred between extractive industry companies and governments. Though the EITI is an important contribution, it still suffers from a fundamental weakness: it remains a voluntary scheme, which countries can choose to ignore.

Following tough negotiations, on the 22nd of August of this year, the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) adopted Sections 1502 and 1504 of the 2010 Dodd-Frank Act on financial reform. They set new standards for the extractive industries.

Section 1502 requires companies listed in the US to strengthen their supply-chain due diligence in order to prove that the minerals they purchase do not fund armed groups. Companies now have two to four years, depending on their size, to put in place rigorous processes. 

In effect, they will have to investigate the origin of the minerals they buy, the actors involved and any potential liability. This has the potential to change the manner business is done in conflict-prone countries such as the DRC and in doing so, to cut funding for violent groups existing within the ‘conflict economy’.

Regarding Section 1504, it will reinforce and complement the EITI by requiring companies in the oil, gas and mining sectors to disclose payments made, on a project-by-project basis, to foreign governments. Since every company listed in the US will have to respect the rule, countries will not be able to escape it. Any discrepancy in the figures will then be easily identified, making it harder for corruption to go unpunished. The European Union will soon pass a similar law, which will include timber companies. Investors can either conform or face severe sanctions.

Anticipation and the systematic reduction of risks

In light of these factors, should companies stop investing in high-risks regions? The answer is no, but they need to adopt effective risk-management policies.

First, they need to assess and monitor potential risks present in their sectors and geographical areas. Importantly, political, economic and social contexts vary greatly from country to country. 

Within countries themselves, we find great nuances, something particularly true for regional heavyweights such as Nigeria and the DRC. Ignoring them can cause costly mistakes.

Second, they need to become familiar with new legal frameworks as they directly affect their operations and strategy. In quickly changing environments, investors need to be proactive.

Furthermore, companies need to make decisions based upon reliable first-hand information. In other words, companies need to collect, through legal and ethical means, information about the products they buy and the partners they work with. In high-risk regions, companies need to conduct comprehensive due diligences and supply-chain mapping; this is crucial in assessing the integrity and reputation of anyone or anything that touches the company.

Lastly, companies need to strengthen and identify potential loopholes in their internal procedures and structures related to anticorruption.

While risks are an inevitable part of business development, a successful investor will aim to mitigate them, whenever and wherever possible.

African Youth: Fulfilling The Potential

How can we ensure that Africa benefits from its demographic dividend?

Africa has two major leadership problems: firstly, its leadership is fragmented. And secondly, its leaders are stagnating. We need a bold new vision that will integrate the continent and engage the new generation in building its future.

“We are angry, we are restless. We are sick and tired of mediocrity and corruption. We want to make our future. Can our leaders make way for us? Can we have a meaningful dialogue without being lectured about the liberation struggles of the past?”

This was the popular refrain among the over 400 youth leaders who met at the Mo Ibrahim Annual Conference in Dakar, Senegal, over the last few days – where they discussed the rather charged topic “African Youth: Fulfilling the Potential”.

Today, half of the population of Africa is under 20. By 2035 the African labour force will be bigger than China, and by 2050 a quarter the global workforce will be African. At that time, nearly half the global youth population will be African. 

How do we ensure that Africa benefits from this demographic dividend? How do we ensure that African youth compete at a global level through their sheer numbers?

There is a falling confidence that the current generation is building a brighter future for the next. And this is hardly surprising. 

Today, the average age of the African head of state is 62, which is three times the average age of the African population.

It is time for my generation to move out of the way. We should be creating the pathways that connect youth to opportunity. We should be building an inter-generational dialogue that encourages a bold vision of an African century we hailed at the beginning of the millennium.

We are constantly reminded by politicians that Africa is the fastest growing continent in the world. There are two questions we need to pose to ourselves. What is the baseline? Africa, with a population of over one billion, has 2.7 percent share of global GDP. 

That’s less than France, with a population of 65 million. The GDP of the Netherlands, with 16 million people, is equivalent to the total GDP of SA, Nigeria and Egypt. The average per capita in Africa is $300, compared to France at $50,000. It is these facts and data that should drive our strategy and political debates.

Even in our growth there is a different story of who is succeeding in Africa. 

This is not the story of China and Brazil, where tens of millions are lifted out of absolute poverty; where in spite of corruption, public institutions like education and health give people skills, jobs and livelihoods; where the public infrastructure like roads, highways, electricity, water, sanitation and housing are expanding.

We have an incestuous web of interconnected, predatory political and economic elites who have a stranglehold on our growth potential. And if GDP is indeed growing rapidly, and even GDP per capita figures are also growing, inequality is also soaring.

The key question is whether a narrow focus on GDP growth will drive job creation and social inclusion. As I travel across Africa, I see urbanisation happening at a frightening rate. It is driven by poverty and the piercing climate crisis that has resulted in prolonged droughts, the resource wars that devastate communities and undermine social cohesion.

 As I experienced in Kibeira, “the settlement sits like a huge sprawling mushroom of shacks on the outskirts of Nairobi. No-one knows how many people live there and not many want to be counted in official statistics, but unofficially many claim it is more than a million. It is a teeming, bustling place which is now part of a familiar sight on the African landscape.

 I see no signs of public investment here.”

Africa missed its opportunity in the global commodity boom of the last decades. We acted as 54 separate countries, weakening our bargaining power as an economic bloc, and failing to ensure mutual benefits in terms of beneficiation and the development of our infrastructure.

Mo Ibrahim, himself a successful telecommunications entrepreneur and pioneer of mobile telephony in Africa, says: “We do not understand our strength as the fastest-growing telecommunications market in the world. We have 500 million users today. Do we have a single telecommunications equipment supplier on the continent? This would never have happened in China. They have forced companies to open manufacturing plants there and to transfer technology and skills to Chinese people.”

We end up as a sheer supplier of raw materials; our African intellectual resources end up in the developed world, strengthening the stranglehold global companies have in relation to us; our countries become markets for manufactured goods and services from developed economies.

And our public debate about the Beijing Consensus versus the Washington Consensus is false. The reality is that every country and corporate wanting to do business with Africa has an agenda to serve themselves. The real failure is our political inability to negotiate as an economic block and create a viable economic common market for our billion citizens.

So the challenge is one of regional integration. The intra-country barriers impede the flow of goods, services and people. They raise the costs of doing business in Africa and fail to create economies of scale. How quickly we integrate into the global economy and scale up our connecting infrastructure depends on our political will to break down these artificial barriers and the vested interests that perpetuate it.

Which brings us to the greatest challenge, that of governance. 

Who benefits from the inefficiencies at our borders; the failure to connect our roads, railways and electricity grids; who benefits from the murky world of bureaucratic red tape that hides the corruption and inefficiency of the system? We have to bring ethics into our conversation. Are leaders entering the public service to serve the interests of the citizens or their individual vested and material interests?

As one young leader said, “Give me examples of those who have led our countries that have not ended [up as] dollar multimillionaires by the time they have left office. We can count them on the fingers of one hand. Will they have to account for how they or their family members have acquired such extraordinary wealth?” I think that is a legitimate demand.

As I listen, I marvel at the power of technology to democratise information, transform the delivery of services and empower citizens. Everyone here has a smartphone. It is absolutely clear that the pace of technology will change how we live, work, educate ourselves and source services from both public and private sector. But it will – it has already begun to – change the checks and balances of democracy. 

Already the mobile digital revolution is linking farmers in rural areas to understand the prices of their produce in urban markets. Africa accounts for 15 of the top 20 countries using mobile banking. In countries like Kenya, Sudan and Gabon, more than half the population uses mobile banking.

Arabic, especially in North Africa, is the fastest growing language on Twitter. Ushahidi, a non-profit business in Kenya, is becoming a global brand that has created a platform that allows geospatial visualization of our campaigns against human trafficking and other areas of social risk. Governments will soon realise the futility of secrecy laws and censorship to hide corruption from the public eye. The media of the future will be driven by citizens on open-source platforms.

I visited a social change hub in Dakar, Senegal, and spent a fascinating time with earnest entrepreneurs who had set up a shared services model. Its founder, Karim Sy, gave up his job after attending a social entrepreneur conference in South Africa, and today the incubator hosts over a 150 new start-ups, demonstrating youth leadership and excellence. After an engaging conversation I was convinced that young leaders like Karim needed to be supported in order to replicate and scale up their service across Africa. They represent our true destiny.

Things have to change. The older generation wants a status quo: we call it “stability”, which appeals to too many donors. The youth want changes now; they call this “prospects”. We need to find a responsible role for the youth without being too prescriptive. 

We need to be breaking down barriers and co-creating solutions. This is the new political narrative we should be building with the youth of the future. As Iman Bermaki, an 18-year-old Moroccan who interacted with former President of Nigeria, Obasanjo, in the opening session, softly says, “Have confidence in young people. We are serious about our future. But try to listen more carefully to what we say.”

Archbishop Tutu, in his characteristic humour, encouraged youth leaders to be unstoppable. “We must be optimistic about the future,” he said. “It belongs to you. Go out and seize it. It’s your destiny.”

The writer was the founding general secretary of the Congress of South African Trade Unions and a cabinet minister under Nelson Mandela.

Next Pope to be American?

Whether the  Milwaukee Archbishop's appointment as Cardinal means next Catholic leader could be from the U.S is a question of time and circumstances, for now, all we can do is analyse possibilities and key indicators . 

The pope has elevated a third American Archbishop to the level of cardinal in 2012, leading to speculation that the next pontiff could be from the U.S.

Archbishop James Harvey, 63, of Wisconsin, was made a 'prince of the church' by Pope Benedict XVI in a solemn ceremony in the Vatican City on Saturday.

Non-European, and especially American, influence is growing at the Vatican. Edwin Frederick O’Brien and Timothy Michael Dolan both of New York, were made cardinals in February.

Harvey will be become the 11th American cardinal elector - the body that chooses a new pope. American cardinals now represent almost ten per cent of voters in the next election.

Yet author and John Paul II biographer George Weigel told NBC News: 'The prominence of American cardinals in the current college reflects the vitality of the Catholic Church in the United States. But I don't think it likely that any American will be elected pope for as long as the United States remains the world's pre-eminent power.'

Pope Benedict XVI presided over the ceremony in St. Peter's Basilica to formally elevate the six men, who hail from Colombia, India, Lebanon, Nigeria, the Philippines and the United States. 

As Benedict read each name aloud in Latin, cheers and applause erupted from their friends and family members in the pews.

Wisconsin's cardinal, James Harvey (right), is greeted by the pope during the ceremony on Saturday

The ceremony was both joyful and emotional: Manila Archbishop Luis Antonio Tagle, seen by many to be a rising star in the church, visibly choked up as he knelt before Benedict to receive his three-pointed red hat, or biretta, and gold ring, and wiped tears from his eyes as he returned to his place.

Abuja, Nigeria Archbishop John Olorunfemi Onaiyekan, meanwhile, seemed to want to sit down and chat with each one of the dozens of cardinals that he greeted in the traditional exchange of peace that follows the formal elevation rite.

Benedict has said that with this 'little consistory,' he was essentially completing his last cardinal-making ceremony held in February, when he elevated 22 cardinals, the vast majority of them European archbishops and Vatican bureaucrats.

Benedict said Saturday that the new cardinals represent the 'unique, universal and all-inclusive identity' of the Catholic Church.

'In this consistory, I want to highlight in particular the fact that the church is the church of all peoples, and so she speaks in the various cultures of the different continents,' he told the crowd, which included Lebanese President Michel Suleiman, the vice president of the Philippines Jejomar Binay and lawmakers from India and Nigeria.

The College of Cardinals remains heavily European even with the new additions: Of the 120 cardinals under age 80 and thus eligible to vote in a conclave to elect a new pope, more than half - 62 - are European.

Critics have complained that the 'princes of the church' no longer represents the Catholic Church today, since Catholicism is growing in Asia and Africa but is in crisis in much of Europe.

The issue of numbers is significant since these are the men who will elect the next pope from among their ranks: Will the next pontiff come from the southern hemisphere, where two-thirds of the world's Catholics live? Or will the papacy return to Italy, which has 28 voting-age cardinals, after a Polish and German pope? Or how about the U.S.?

The new cardinals do make the papal voting bloc a bit more multinational: Latin America, which boasts half of the world's Catholics, now has 21 voting-age cardinals; North America, 14; Africa, 11; Asia, 11; and Oceana, one

Among the six new cardinals is Archbishop James Harvey, the American prefect of the papal household.

As prefect, Harvey was the direct superior of the pope's former butler, Paolo Gabriele, who is serving an 18 month prison sentence in a Vatican jail for stealing the pope's private papers and leaking them to a reporter in the greatest Vatican security breach in modern times.

The Vatican spokesman has denied Harvey, 63 from Milwaukee, is leaving because of the scandal. But on the day the pope announced Harvey would be made cardinal, he also said he would leave the Vatican to take up duties as the archpriest of one of the Vatican's four Roman basilicas. 

Such a face-saving promotion-removal is not an uncommon Vatican personnel move.

The solemn but emotional consistory ceremony in St Peter's Basilica at the Vatican

Harvey's departure has led to much speculation about who would replace him in the delicate job of organizing the pope's daily schedule and arranging audiences.

Aside from Harvey, Tagle, and Onaiyekan, the new cardinals are: Bogota, Colombia Archbishop Ruben Salazar Gomez; the Patriarch of Antioch of the Maronites in Lebanon, His Beatitude Bechara Boutros Rai; and the major Archbishop of the Trivandrum of the Siro-Malankaresi in India, His Beatitude Baselios Cleemis Thottunkal.

Cardinals serve as the pope's closest advisers, but their main task is to elect a new pope. And with Benedict, 85, slowing down, that task is ever more present. For the second time, the consistory ceremony was greatly trimmed back, lasting just over an hour to spare the pope the fatigue of a lengthy ceremony.

He will, however, celebrate Mass on Sunday with them.

While Benedict didn't mention the cardinals' primary task in his remarks, he did remind them that the scarlet of their cassock and hat that they wear symbolizes the blood that cardinals must be willing to shed to remain faithful to the church.

'From now on you will be even more closely and intimately linked to the See of Peter,' he said.

The six new cardinals are all under age 80. Their nominations bring the number of voting-age cardinals to 120, 67 of whom were named by Benedict, all but ensuring that his successor will be chosen from a group of like-minded prelates.

Saturday's consistory marks the first time in decades that not a single European or Italian has been made a cardinal - a statistic that has not gone unnoticed in Italy. Italy still has the lions' share of cardinals, though, with 28 voting-age 'princes' of the church.

Tablets overtaking laptops?

Black Friday could be the first day that more people buy tablet computers than laptops, according to a top analyst.

In the fourth quarter of 2009, sales of tablets in North America are expected to exceed laptop purchases by as much as 50 per cent as millions invest in the gadgets as gifts for their loved ones.

The popularity of the lightweight devices will then grow around the world, overtaking shipments of laptops on a global level in 2015.

Richard Shim, an analyst for market research firm DisplaySearch, forecasts that a total of 21.5million tablets will be sold in the run-up to Christmas this year.

Just 14.6million laptop computers are expected to ship over the same time period - the first quarter ever that tablets will have outsold notebooks.

Over the course of the year as a whole, according to Mr Shim, around the same number of laptops and tablets will be sold in North America - 56million.

This represents a 46 per cent rise in the number of tablets shipped, followed a 200 per cent rise in their popularity in 2011.

By contrast, sales of laptops are predicted to improve on last year by just two per cent.

Next year, around 80million tablets are expected to be sold in North America, against 64million laptops.

In 2015, the rest of the world will catch up with America, as 276million tablets are sold globally while 270million laptops are shipped.

Ever since the launch of the iPad in 2010, many tech fans have preferred tablets because of their easy portability, media capabilities and cool image.

And in the past year or so, the range of tablets on the market has massively expanded, with Amazon, Google and Microsoft all challenging Apple's dominant position.

Additionally, the introduction of a greater variety of sizes has widened the devices' appeal, as customers can choose between tablets as small as seven inches and as large as 10.6 inches.

However, while tablets may be becoming more dominant in the West, laptops are still expected to grow in popularity in the developing world, where many millions of people are expected to acquire their first computer over the coming years.