Most visitors who have spent any length of time in Nairobi
have been to the Westgate Centre. This US-style mall complex, situated in the
wealthy Westlands region of the city, has profited in recent years from the
plentiful expat and middle class Kenyan shilling. However, it’s not a place some
have much love for – the clear delineation of Nairobi’s haves and have-nots is
marked out by the rich folk who enter up its steps and the poor street-hawkers
who hang about in the parking lot and try to sell you stuff.
That such a violent and abhorrent act should take place in
Westgate was no accident – it was carefully chosen by people who knew how they
could have the greatest impact on Kenya and get the most coverage internationally:
strike where the rich and the foreign hang out.
This is a place that symbolises the country’s confident new
wealth: The growing economy, the
two-fingers-to-the-west election of ICC-indicted Uhuru Kenyatta, the evident,
but incomplete, ‘Africa rising’ narrative. But it also demonstrates the extent
of the Somalia-shaped problem Kenya has on its doorstep.
For the first time in its history Kenya has an occupying
military force in another country. When its troops crossed the Somali border in
2011, and eventually took Kismayo earlier this year, the feeling was that this
assertive change in foreign policy was going to cause some kind of reaction.
Abdullahi Boru Halake, a Kenyan political analyst says that “Nairobi has been
in the crosshairs of Al Shabaab since Kenyan forces intervened in Somalia
October 2011. We had closely contested elections and the ongoing ICC cases that
took much of the attention. In a way, up to this time, we have dodged
bullets/bombs.”
Stig Jarle Hansen, author of Al Shabaab in Somalia, states
that rumours of Al Shabaab’s demise have always been greatly exaggerated:
“Shabaab has lost teritory and has faced a conflict over Omar Hamami, but it is
better than ever in conducting terrorist attacks…conventional means are more
exhausted.”
Indeed, up until now Nairobi seemed to have got off fairly
lightly with a few grenade attacks (generally on bars), which one Kenyan
journalist speculated to me was, in part, a sign of local business disputes, rather
than Islamic militancy. There was also a nasty matatu bombing in Eastleigh, the
predominantly Somali district of the city. Eastleigh has also suffered from a
police crackdown on its population, who have for many years been distrusted by
other Kenyans, both for their connection to the crime and warlordism of
Somalia, but also for their success in business.
A noticeable security increase in shops was the most obvious
consequence of the Kenyan invasion whilst Al Shabaab has continually asserted
that they would drive the occupiers into the sea. But the efficacy of placing a
few more guards with metal detectors on the doors seemed debatable. This would
be unlikely to deter a really determined attacker, as Westgate now seems to
show.
The eastern Somali region of the country was more obviously
affected, with a number of attacks taking place near the border, particularly
in the town of Garissa, which included a mass shooting at a church in July 2012
that killed 15 people. In the understandable drama of the last 2 days (which
exceeds anything Kenya has experienced since the US embassy bombing in 1998) we
should not forget these lower-profile killings.
Kenya has a genuine security problem with Somalia which is
unlikely to be addressed by the withdrawal of Kenyan forces from the country.
Hallake, again, describes the Westgate attack as being “a case of a systemic
intelligence failure which is a function of intelligence aligning itself with
politics rather than being a professional outfit… the case for an enhanced and
deepened security sector reform has never been this urgent.” Stig Hansen says
that Kenya is “not even close” to disrupting Shabaab’s capacity to carry out
sophisticated attacks of this nature.
To fight this threat Kenya is going to need more international
support with its intelligence and counter-terrorism strategy. This is something
western countries are well-qualified and capable of providing. No one wants
East Africa’s most important city to descend further into fear and paranoia
given its key role as a regional hub for business, diplomacy and the
development sector. Kenya should also avoid a knee-jerk crackdown on its Somali
population, something that has the potential to stimulate yet further violence,
which is no doubt what the attackers intended.
So this is probably going to mean more engagement with the
Kenyan security and intelligence services at a time when western powers have
been trying to keep the new government at arm’s length whilst its two top men
are on trial at the ICC.
If the Westgate attack shows us anything it’s that Al
Shabaab remains organised and dangerous and Kenya’s Somalia problem is nowhere
near solved.
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