As readers realize, the military confrontation
between Hamas and the Israelis is rapidly escalating. However, this event
is happening in the context of a growing Israeli-Iranian confrontation. In
listening minutes ago to news coverage on FOX News, CNN and MSNBC, it is
apparent that events are escalating so quickly that their websites cannot keep
up with what is being reported on the live media (see the first link and second link for
reasonably current media reports on the escalation of the conflict).
On these three networks, minutes ago it was reported
that after Tel Aviv was targeted for a second day the Jerusalem metro area was
also targeted by Hamas’ long-range missiles. As a result, the Israelis are
now calling up 75,000 reservists for a ground war in Gaza. Such a large call-up
indicates that the Israelis may be serious about ending the rocket threats
“once and for all” with a “shock and awe” military campaign of their own.
Initial website reports were that the Israelis were calling up 16,000 or 30,000
reservists, but that call-up has now more than doubled. I think one reason
is that with Egypt sending a top-level government minister to support Hamas and
making noises like it stands with Hamas in this confrontation, the Israelis
must also prepare for the possibility of a war with Egypt as well if the
current radical Islamic regime ruling Egypt breaks the longstanding
Egyptian-Israeli peace treaty. Given the exchanges of military fire with Syrian
forces in the Golan region (see previous posts), the Israelis also have to be
prepared for a wider war with Syria so all eventualities must be considered.
How did this start? The reason is clear. Hamas
wants to eliminate the Israeli nation, and they have been firing thousands of
rockets at Israeli targets in recent years. Finally they launched a wave of over
a hundred rocket attacks in a short time, and the Israelis had to respond. They
killed a top Hamas commander in an airstrike and attacked the rocket-launching
infrastructure of Hamas in Gaza. Hamas has reacted by dramatically increasing
the number of rockets fired at Israeli targets. This has been matched by an
increase in Israeli airstrikes on targets in Gaza. To gain an appreciation of
what Israeli citizens are living with under this rocket barrage from Hamas,
please watch the videos in the third link and fourth link. One is a
short videoclip, but the other is an entire Israeli nightly-news program in
English. In these videos, you will see that the Israelis are increasingly a
nation at war and preparing for a larger war forced upon them. In the news
program, you will see a map which shows Israelis near Gaza have but 15-60 seconds
to find an emergency shelter once they hear the air raid sirens.
Calling the shots behind the scenes is likely the
nation of Iran. Hamas is now attacking Israel with Iranian-made Fajr missiles
so Hamas clearly received these missiles from Iran. I learned on a cable news
network today that the Israelis last month destroyed in Sudan an
Iranian-sponsored, missile-making factory that was supplying missiles from Iran
to Hamas. Israel has been silent about the attack, and few internet
links about that attack are available (one is included as the fifth link). Remember
the mysterious RPV that was shot down by Israeli warplanes not long ago as it
headed toward the Israeli nuclear facility at Dimona? That was likely orchestrated
by Iran. The wave of new attacks by Hamas against Israel was also likely called
for by the Iranian leaders. I think they are probing the Israelis to test their
capabilities and their will to resist. I am somewhat surprised that Hamas fired
a missile toward Jerusalem. What if they had hit the Dome of the Rock with a
misguided Islamic missile?
Iran also very likely wants to have a large-scale
test of the Israeli Iron Dome anti-missile defense system to see how effective
it is. It is now seeing it in action against the incoming Hamas missiles.
Reports are that the Iron Dome system is shooting down a large percentage of
the rockets, but not a majority of them. I do not think the Israelis are
choosing to shoot at every incoming missile. The Iron Dome system almost
instantaneously calculates an incoming missile’s trajectory, so the Iron Dome
software can be programmed to quickly make a decision about whether an incoming
missile threatens any vulnerable Israeli target. The incoming missiles can, no
doubt, be “triaged” as to their threat status and the system can decide to fire
only on those missiles which are judged to be a serious threat to harm
something. If the system can determine that a missile will explode harmlessly
in the desert, it would make sense not to fire on it with a defensive missile
to “save ammo.” The Israelis are very much in the same situation
that Londoners were in during the V-1 Nazi buzz-bomb attacks of World War
II. Even as the Nazi V-1s were not precisely guided, neither are the vast majority
of the Hamas missiles. They are liable to land anywhere, which actually
increases the terror of the target population. Just as the Allies tried to
locate and bomb the Nazi V-1 missile bases, the Israelis are doing the
same thing in trying to locate and bomb the Hamas rocket facilities. Iran is
surely closely watching the performance of the Israeli Iron Dome system to look
for weaknesses to exploit. Iran is, I think, willing to use Hamas as a
disposable pawn to gain information on the Iron Dome system so it can use that
information to make a rocket barrage by Hezbollah on Israel’s northern border
more effective.
Egypt is now a huge wild-card. Under Mubarak, it
was a predictable and stabilizing influence in the region. Now that the
disastrous “Arab Spring” has placed a member of the Islamic Brotherhood in
power in Egypt, Egypt is neither stabilizing nor predictable. I’m sure that
behind the scenes, Israel has told Egypt’s new leadership that if Egypt breaks
its peace treaty with Israel and attacks Israel in any way, Israel will take
off all its gloves and hit Egypt so hard the entire nation will mourn the
Moslem Brotherhood ever coming to power. Egypt’s Suez Canal could quickly be
destroyed by Israeli airstrikes. This would cripple world trade, so this possibility
is a huge motivation for other nations to pressure Egypt to stay out of this
war. The Israelis could also hit the Aswan Dam with bunker buster bombs,
causing a river tsunami to race down the entire Nile Valley all the way to the
Mediterranean Sea. The devastation would likely cripple Egypt for decades. If
Egypt chooses to fight the Israelis (“Judah” in biblical terms), Isaiah
19:16-17 may find a fulfilment. Personally, I think enough Egyptian generals
are smart enough to convince Egypt’s radical Islamic leader not to sacrifice
Egypt for Iran’s schemes, but one cannot know for sure.
The stakes are high and getting higher in the
Mideast. One thing I’m sure of: I’ll bet Iran is entirely willing to fight
Israel…to the last Egyptian, Hezbollah soldier, Palestinian and Syrian. Iran is
happy to let all its puppets and proxies do the fighting and dying for
Iran’s gambit. However, the Israelis know Iran is orchestrating its puppets on
Israel’s borders. If a large war erupts, I don’t think the Israelis will allow
Iran to go unscathed. That would be the perfect time to launch an
Israeli strike on Iran’s nuclear facilities. If Hezbollah launches perhaps
50,000 missiles at Israel and does major damage to Israeli cities, I think any
Israeli strike vs. Iran would also hit Iranian cities, not just their nuclear
plants.
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