Acknowledgment of Africa’s ongoing economic revival
is becoming more widespread.
Hardly a week passes without a notable report or
conference extolling the continent’s growth performance and structural
potential, made more pronounced by the economic malaise of much of the advanced
world.
Earlier this month, the Institute for International
Finance (IIF) published its first-ever regional overview on Sub-Saharan Africa.
The Economist magazine in December last year
featured the title “Africa Rising” on its front cover, an about turn from its
2000 labeling of Africa as the “Hopeless Continent”. Home to several of the
world’s fastest-growing economies, Africa is increasingly difficult to ignore.
Yet, the effect of global sentiment springing so
dramatically from Africa’s distorted past image of war, disease and poverty to
one of growth, opportunity and optimism is creating a binary discussion which
leaves little space for real depth of understanding. I am often asked whether I
am an “Afro-optimist” or an “Afro-pessimist”.
Naturally, when forced to make this call, my leaning
is unequivocally to the former – I believe deeply in Africa’s current
resurgence, and have great confidence in the ability of its people, across its
54 states, to negotiate the myriad challenges faced in engineering a brighter
future.
But this is not to say that the path will be a
smooth or straightforward one and an appreciation of the depth of the
challenges still faced does not imply a lack of faith in the continent’s
ability to surmount them.
As a result, we need to move from the somewhat
simplistic question of whether Africa’s glass is “half full” or “half empty” to
engage more constructively with its clear merits and persistent challenges, and
move towards an understanding of how the continent can reach the critical next
level of growth.
Core to this level is the need to increasingly diversify
economies away from reliance on un-beneficiated natural resources, to provide
sustenance, as well as institutional support (primarily through education and
employment) for a rapidly swelling population (expected to increase by 200
million in the next decade), to build the infrastructure necessary to boost
intra-regional trade and create cities capable of absorbing the roughly 400
million Africans that will be born in or migrate to urban hubs in the next two
decades
Perhaps most critical is the necessity to craft more
inclusive and equitably distributed growth. The gulf in income across Africa is
becoming more pronounced, and the socio-economic responsibilities, let alone
threats, that this gives rise to must be a central feature of future plans.
While North Africa’s “Arab Spring” will not systemically spread south,
political systems will have to become more nimble to negotiate the demands of
an increasingly youthful, urbanized and connected populace. The risks, both
foreseeable and unknown, that accompany these inevitable shifts may not detract
from Africa’s allure, but they certainly imply that a more nuanced and critical
approach to the continent is necessary.
An appreciation of Africa’s extraordinary
agricultural potential is emblematic of this dual challenge. On the one hand,
awareness of this potential (Africa is home to roughly two-thirds of the
world’s available cropland) is essential to attract critical investment towards
equipping Africa’s predominantly subsistence farmers with the means to increase
yields, store and transport goods to local, regional and international markets.
Yet, a powerful array of challenges stands in the way of realizing this
potential, not least of which is the fact that less than 10 percent across
Africa is held under formal land tenure (thus allowing the displacement of
communities in the interests of clearing land for commercial farming). Thus, an
approach which engages with the opportunity in a manner which is sensitive to
its latent pitfalls is essential.
While the adage that a “rising tide lifts all boats”
will to an extent ring true, the enormity of the challenges inherent in
reaching this next stage of growth means that some countries will prosper and
others will undoubtedly falter. Today’s euphoria is also associated with a far
greater awareness of the internal dynamics shaping Africa.
While Africa’s successes
will be beamed out to a grateful international audience, so too will its
failings. Many African countries are arguably in a similar situation today
where South Africa was at the dawn of its democracy – an international darling,
feted for its reform path and glistening with hope. Viewed through this partial
frame, South Africa’s “sad decline” (The Economist) has been pronounced. But
for those with a more nuanced appreciation of the depth of challenges facing
South Africa two decades ago, today’s travails are more readily understood.
To be sure, the thrust of the positivity around
Africa’s prospects is perhaps necessary to blast through the very deeply
negative impression the continent previously held throughout the international
community. But we must soon move deeper, and analyse the continent inspired by
a collective appreciation of its potential and a real and constructive
engagement with its challenges.
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